Brooklyn Nets at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Dennis SchroderPoints31
- Dennis SchroderAssists8
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds10
Pistons- Jaden IveyPoints34
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Jalen DurenRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–118
- Q47.1Ausar Thompson defensive rebound112–118
- Q410.0Lonnie Walker IV misses 29-foot three point jumper112–118
- Q416.1Jaden Ivey makes free throw 2 of 2112–118
- Q416.1Jaden Ivey makes free throw 1 of 2112–117
- Q416.1Mikal Bridges personal take foul112–116
- Q418.1Isaiah Stewart defensive rebound112–116
- Q419.1Dennis Schroder misses two point shot112–116
- Q423.1Jaden Ivey out of bounds bad pass turnover112–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:45Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three pointer (Evan Fournier assists)BKN 75 – 76 DET · DET 42% → 53% +11DET 42% → 53%+11 pts
- Q318.1Lonnie Walker IV makes 26-foot three pointer (Dennis Schroder assists)BKN 81 – 85 DET · BKN 24% → 35% +11BKN 24% → 35%+11 pts
- Q410:50Jaden Ivey makes 26-foot three pointerBKN 84 – 91 DET · DET 66% → 77% +11DET 66% → 77%+11 pts
- Q410:03Jaden Ivey makes 27-foot three pointerBKN 88 – 96 DET · DET 71% → 81% +11DET 71% → 81%+11 pts
- Q46:17Cade Cunningham makes driving layupBKN 98 – 100 DET · DET 49% → 61% +11DET 49% → 61%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -1.5
- BKN 56%
- Fair odds
- BKN -108
- DET +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 112.0 – 111.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1361 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −35 | −11 | BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +41 Elo | BKN 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 51.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.0 | Points scored | 112.123rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 121.027th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.1 | Margin | −8.928th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 109.325th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 118.028th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.3 | Pace | 101.99th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–18 | Road vs home | 4–2529th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−35 Elo- Cam Thomas right foot−5 Elo
Pistons
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 2–0 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.