Minnesota Timberwolves at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints37
- Kyle AndersonAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds11
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints22
- James HardenAssists7
- Ivica ZubacRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–100
- Q419.1Josh Minott defensive rebound118–100
- Q421.2Josh Minott blocks Jordan Miller 's 23-foot three point jumper118–100
- Q432.0shot clock turnover118–100
- Q432.1Timberwolves offensive team rebound118–100
- Q432.1Brandon Boston Jr. blocks Josh Minott 's 3-foot layup118–100
- Q455.0Jordan Miller makes tip shot118–100
- Q455.0Jordan Miller offensive rebound118–98
- Q458.1Mason Plumlee misses 22-foot three point jumper118–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:34Mike Conley makes 23-foot three point shot (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 64 – 68 LAC · MIN 24% → 32% +8MIN 24% → 32%+8 pts
- Q38:01Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 67 – 68 LAC · MIN 32% → 41% +9MIN 32% → 41%+9 pts
- Q35:39Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 72 – 74 LAC · MIN 28% → 38% +9MIN 28% → 38%+9 pts
- Q410:58Mike Conley makes 26-foot three pointerMIN 89 – 80 LAC · MIN 71% → 81% +10MIN 71% → 81%+10 pts
- Q410:32Amir Coffey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bones Hyland assists)MIN 89 – 83 LAC · LAC 19% → 29% +10LAC 19% → 29%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1.5
- LAC 56%
- Fair odds
- LAC -145
- MIN +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 107.9 – 110.7 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1597 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −17 | +12 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +39 Elo | LAC 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 59.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 117.211th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.8 | Points allowed | 112.611th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.3 | Margin | +4.65th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 117.64th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.9 | Defense rating | 113.014th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.2 | Pace | 99.519th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3021–13 | Road vs home | 22–97th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–1 LAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.