Minnesota Timberwolves at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Naz ReidPoints34
- Kyle AndersonAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds17
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints34
- Darius GarlandAssists8
- Jarrett AllenRebounds18
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game104–113
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime104–113
- OT10.1Jarrett Allen defensive rebound104–113
- OT14.0Naz Reid misses 27-foot three point jumper104–113
- OT24.1Jarrett Allen makes 1-foot dunk (Georges Niang assists)104–113
- OT27.1Georges Niang defensive rebound104–111
- OT30.0Anthony Edwards misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot104–111
- OT33.0Kyle Anderson enters the game for Nickeil Alexander-Walker104–111
- OT33.0Timberwolves Full timeout104–111
- OT33.0Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound104–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:21Naz Reid makes 22-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 93 – 94 CLE · MIN 17% → 39% +23MIN 17% → 39%+23 pts
- Q41:39Rudy Gobert makes 1-foot dunk (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 95 – 96 CLE · MIN 19% → 38% +19MIN 19% → 38%+19 pts
- Q458.0Naz Reid makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 97 – 96 CLE · MIN 35% → 64% +29MIN 35% → 64%+29 pts
- Q427.1Darius Garland makes technical free throwMIN 97 – 97 CLE · CLE 30% → 51% +21CLE 30% → 51%+21 pts
- OT4:20Naz Reid makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 100 – 99 CLE · MIN 35% → 55% +20MIN 35% → 55%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -0.5
- CLE 52%
- Fair odds
- CLE -126
- MIN +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 104.7 – 106.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1616 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | 0 | −25 | MIN: Usual rotation · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +11 Elo | CLE 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30113.3 | Points scored | 114.018th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.5 | Points allowed | 109.52nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.8 | Margin | +4.56th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 114.016th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.8 | Defense rating | 109.53rd of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.1 | Pace | 99.224th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 1st of 3021–11 | Road vs home | 20–1110th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.