Milwaukee Bucks at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints35
- Damian LillardAssists11
- Bobby PortisRebounds8
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints26
- James HardenAssists11
- Amir CoffeyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–117
- Q41.1Malik Beasley defensive rebound124–117
- Q44.1Norman Powell misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot124–117
- Q48.0Pat Connaughton makes free throw 2 of 2124–117
- Q48.0Pat Connaughton makes free throw 1 of 2123–117
- Q48.0Bones Hyland personal take foul122–117
- Q48.0James Harden bad pass (Pat Connaughton steals)122–117
- Q48.0James Harden defensive rebound122–117
- Q411.0Bones Hyland enters the game for Ivica Zubac122–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:24Bones Hyland makes 29-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)MIL 96 – 98 LAC · LAC 40% → 55% +15LAC 40% → 55%+15 pts
- Q47:03Damian Lillard makes 26-foot step back jumpshotMIL 103 – 98 LAC · MIL 65% → 79% +14MIL 65% → 79%+14 pts
- Q44:08Amir Coffey makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)MIL 107 – 105 LAC · LAC 16% → 33% +16LAC 16% → 33%+16 pts
- Q43:47Brook Lopez makes 29-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 110 – 105 LAC · MIL 68% → 85% +17MIL 68% → 85%+17 pts
- Q43:18Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three pointerMIL 113 – 107 LAC · MIL 75% → 90% +15MIL 75% → 90%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -3
- MIL 62%
- Fair odds
- MIL -168
- LAC +168 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 117.4 – 113.5 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1577 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +15 | −89 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +86 Elo | MIL 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 62.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.9 | Points scored | 117.211th of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.1 | Points allowed | 112.410th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.8 | Margin | +4.75th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.3 | Offense rating | 117.64th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 112.913th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.5 | Pace | 99.520th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 15th of 3016–16 | Road vs home | 22–87th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−89 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–0 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.