Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints34
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists12
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds14
Lakers- D'Angelo RussellPoints44
- D'Angelo RussellAssists9
- Anthony DavisRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–123
- Q40.0(00:00) [Bucks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)122–123
- Q40.0Bucks offensive team rebound122–123
- Q42.1Spencer Dinwiddie blocks Damian Lillard 's 22-foot step back jumpshot122–123
- Q45.2Cam Reddish enters the game for Austin Reaves122–123
- Q45.2Jaxson Hayes enters the game for D'Angelo Russell122–123
- Q45.2Bucks Full timeout122–123
- Q45.2D'Angelo Russell makes 13-foot driving floating jump shot122–123
- Q423.0Austin Reaves enters the game for Cam Reddish122–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:37D'Angelo Russell makes 9-foot driving floating jump shotMIL 111 – 112 LAL · LAL 41% → 58% +18LAL 41% → 58%+18 pts
- Q42:25Pat Connaughton makes 24-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 114 – 112 LAL · MIL 41% → 68% +27MIL 41% → 68%+27 pts
- Q41:54Damian Lillard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 117 – 112 LAL · MIL 70% → 91% +20MIL 70% → 91%+20 pts
- Q41:13D'Angelo Russell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)MIL 120 – 118 LAL · LAL 5% → 25% +20LAL 5% → 25%+20 pts
- Q45.2D'Angelo Russell makes 13-foot driving floating jump shotMIL 122 – 123 LAL · LAL 11% → 89% +78LAL 11% → 89%+78 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -1
- MIL 54%
- Fair odds
- MIL -110
- LAL +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 119.8 – 119.1 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | −39 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +31 Elo | MIL 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.9 | Points scored | 117.210th of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 117.520th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.8 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 113.417th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 113.717th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.5 | Pace | 102.55th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 15th of 3016–15 | Road vs home | 22–118th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.