Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints44
- Domantas SabonisAssists12
- Domantas SabonisRebounds20
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints31
- LeBron JamesAssists13
- Anthony DavisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–120
- Q45.2shot clock turnover130–120
- Q427.1Trey Lyles defensive rebound130–120
- Q430.0Jalen Hood-Schifino misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot130–120
- Q443.0Max Christie defensive rebound130–120
- Q445.0De'Aaron Fox misses 12-foot pullup jump shot130–120
- Q450.0Maxwell Lewis enters the game for Spencer Dinwiddie130–120
- Q450.0Harry Giles III enters the game for Rui Hachimura130–120
- Q450.0Max Christie enters the game for Austin Reaves130–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:21Davion Mitchell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)SAC 48 – 48 LAL · SAC 32% → 39% +7SAC 32% → 39%+7 pts
- Q24:21Davion Mitchell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Keegan Murray assists)SAC 55 – 50 LAL · SAC 45% → 53% +8SAC 45% → 53%+8 pts
- Q23:48Keegan Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SAC 58 – 50 LAL · SAC 53% → 61% +8SAC 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q22:55Davion Mitchell makes 25-foot three pointer (Malik Monk assists)SAC 61 – 50 LAL · SAC 62% → 69% +8SAC 62% → 69%+8 pts
- Q22:04De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 64 – 51 LAL · SAC 67% → 75% +7SAC 67% → 75%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -4
- LAL 66%
- Fair odds
- LAL -174
- SAC +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 119.2 – 123.4 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | +27 | SAC: Usual rotation · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +118 Elo | LAL 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 63.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 117.211th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 117.320th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 113.418th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 113.517th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.2 | Pace | 102.56th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 13th of 3018–15 | Road vs home | 22–108th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 2–0 LAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.