Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints25
- Anthony EdwardsAssists7
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds7
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints29
- LeBron JamesAssists9
- Anthony DavisRebounds25
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–120
- Q410.1shot clock turnover109–120
- Q433.1Luka Garza makes free throw 2 of 2109–120
- Q433.1Luka Garza makes free throw 1 of 2108–120
- Q433.1Jaxson Hayes loose ball foul107–120
- Q433.1Timberwolves offensive team rebound107–120
- Q433.1Josh Minott misses driving floating jump shot107–120
- Q438.0Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound107–120
- Q439.1Harry Giles III misses 6-foot two point shot107–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:30LeBron James makes 26-foot three point jumper (Rui Hachimura assists)MIN 68 – 72 LAL · LAL 62% → 70% +8LAL 62% → 70%+8 pts
- Q31:46Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot step back jumpshotMIN 90 – 86 LAL · MIN 47% → 58% +12MIN 47% → 58%+12 pts
- Q30.0Luka Garza makes 5-foot driving floating jump shotMIN 92 – 91 LAL · MIN 39% → 47% +8MIN 39% → 47%+8 pts
- Q411:06D'Angelo Russell makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotMIN 92 – 94 LAL · LAL 57% → 65% +8LAL 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q49:46Anthony Davis makes two point shotMIN 94 – 98 LAL · LAL 65% → 73% +8LAL 65% → 73%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -1.5
- LAL 57%
- Fair odds
- LAL -173
- MIN +173 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 111.4 – 115.5 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1607 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −34 | +39 | MIN: Missing Rudy Gobert −30 · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +47 Elo | LAL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 63.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30113.2 | Points scored | 117.310th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.6 | Points allowed | 117.621st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.6 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 113.617th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.7 | Defense rating | 113.817th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.1 | Pace | 102.55th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3021–12 | Road vs home | 23–118th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−34 Elo- Rudy Gobert right hamstring−30 Elo
Lakers
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–0 LAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.