LA Clippers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints26
- Paul GeorgeAssists6
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints34
- Brandon IngramAssists7
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–112
- Q421.1Norman Powell makes driving layup (Bones Hyland assists)104–112
- Q432.1Zion Williamson makes driving layup (Trey Murphy III assists)102–112
- Q447.2Zion Williamson defensive rebound102–110
- Q451.0Paul George misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot102–110
- Q456.1Zion Williamson makes free throw 2 of 2102–110
- Q456.1Pelicans offensive team rebound102–109
- Q456.1Zion Williamson misses free throw 1 of 2102–109
- Q456.1Norman Powell shooting foul102–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:58Norman Powell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 71 – 71 NO · LAC 30% → 40% +10LAC 30% → 40%+10 pts
- Q31:23Naji Marshall makes 24-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)LAC 75 – 78 NO · NO 59% → 70% +11NO 59% → 70%+11 pts
- Q34.0Amir Coffey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)LAC 80 – 80 NO · LAC 30% → 41% +12LAC 30% → 41%+12 pts
- Q411:47Trey Murphy III makes 24-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)LAC 80 – 85 NO · NO 67% → 77% +11NO 67% → 77%+11 pts
- Q47:54Paul George makes 25-foot three pointerLAC 94 – 98 NO · LAC 14% → 24% +10LAC 14% → 24%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -5
- NO 70%
- Fair odds
- NO -202
- LAC +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 109.2 – 114.6 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −29 | +36 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +145 Elo | NO 69.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 66.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 116.113th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 111.28th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.4 | Margin | +4.94th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 115.88th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 110.98th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.3 | Pace | 100.016th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 5th of 3020–13 | Road vs home | 18–1316th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 1–2 NO in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.