New Orleans Pelicans at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints23
- Brandon IngramAssists5
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds12
76ers- Tobias HarrisPoints21
- Kyle LowryAssists7
- Paul ReedRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–95
- Q414.0Herbert Jones defensive rebound103–95
- Q417.0Kelly Oubre Jr. misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot103–95
- Q424.0Herbert Jones makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)103–95
- Q445.1Jeff Dowtin Jr. makes 28-foot three pointer100–95
- Q41:00Zion Williamson makes driving layup100–92
- Q41:11Pelicans Full timeout98–92
- Q41:1176ers Full timeout98–92
- Q41:11Herbert Jones defensive rebound98–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:58Zion Williamson makes driving layupNO 2 – 0 PHI · NO 68% → 72% +4NO 68% → 72%+4 pts
- Q110:40Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 2-foot two point shot (Kyle Lowry assists)NO 2 – 2 PHI · PHI 28% → 32% +4PHI 28% → 32%+4 pts
- Q110:08Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 22-foot three point shot (Kyle Lowry assists)NO 2 – 5 PHI · PHI 32% → 38% +6PHI 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q19:51Jonas Valanciunas makes 3-foot two point shot (Herbert Jones assists)NO 4 – 5 PHI · NO 62% → 66% +4NO 62% → 66%+4 pts
- Q19:26Brandon Ingram makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 7 – 5 PHI · NO 66% → 72% +6NO 66% → 72%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -8
- NO 78%
- Fair odds
- NO -219
- PHI +219 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 115.7 – 109.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +48 | −90 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +223 Elo | NO 78.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 68.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 116.813th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.5 | Points allowed | 113.814th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.1 | Margin | +3.110th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 116.09th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 113.014th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.3 | Pace | 100.316th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 4th of 3019–13 | Road vs home | 19–1417th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−90 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.