New Orleans Pelicans at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints34
- Zion WilliamsonAssists9
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds10
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints17
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists7
- Immanuel QuickleyRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game139–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter139–98
- Q412.0Jahmi'us Ramsey defensive rebound139–98
- Q415.1Matt Ryan misses 26-foot three point jumper139–98
- Q417.1Izaiah Brockington offensive rebound139–98
- Q420.1Jordan Hawkins misses 14-foot pullup jump shot139–98
- Q432.0Jahmi'us Ramsey makes 1-foot layup (Jordan Nwora assists)139–98
- Q433.1Cody Zeller makes dunk139–96
- Q433.1Cody Zeller offensive rebound137–96
- Q436.1Jordan Hawkins misses 5-foot two point shot137–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:34Herbert Jones makes 22-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 9 – 8 TOR · NO 62% → 68% +6NO 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q19:11Gary Trent Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)NO 9 – 11 TOR · TOR 32% → 38% +6TOR 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q17:20Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotNO 14 – 17 TOR · TOR 34% → 41% +6TOR 34% → 41%+6 pts
- Q16:35CJ McCollum makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)NO 17 – 19 TOR · NO 55% → 61% +6NO 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q15:23Herbert Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)NO 22 – 21 TOR · NO 61% → 67% +6NO 61% → 67%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -6
- NO 73%
- Fair odds
- NO -197
- TOR +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 116.8 – 111.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +34 | −54 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NO +174 Elo | NO 73.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 66.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 114.417th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 117.621st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.5 | Margin | −3.224th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 112.519th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 115.623rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.3 | Pace | 100.914th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 4th of 3018–13 | Road vs home | 13–1824th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 1–0 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.