New Orleans Pelicans at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints28
- Brandon IngramAssists10
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds9
Hawks- Bogdan BogdanovicPoints25
- Dejounte MurrayAssists11
- Clint CapelaRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–103
- Q419.0Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)116–103
- Q426.0CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three pointer116–100
- Q436.0Zion Williamson offensive rebound113–100
- Q440.1Brandon Ingram misses 16-foot two point shot113–100
- Q41:02Clint Capela makes 2-foot layup (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)113–100
- Q41:10CJ McCollum makes free throw 1 of 1113–98
- Q41:10Garrison Mathews shooting foul112–98
- Q41:10CJ McCollum makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Brandon Ingram assists)112–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:39Saddiq Bey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)NO 0 – 3 ATL · ATL 33% → 39% +6ATL 33% → 39%+6 pts
- Q19:29Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 24-foot three point jumperNO 6 – 6 ATL · ATL 28% → 34% +6ATL 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q18:26CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three pointer (Brandon Ingram assists)NO 9 – 10 ATL · NO 58% → 64% +6NO 58% → 64%+6 pts
- Q12:20Saddiq Bey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)NO 19 – 18 ATL · ATL 27% → 33% +6ATL 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q11:20Trey Murphy III makes 26-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)NO 24 – 18 ATL · NO 71% → 77% +6NO 71% → 77%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -6.5
- NO 74%
- Fair odds
- NO -199
- ATL +199 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 118.5 – 113.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +51 | −32 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Kobe Bufkin −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NO +179 Elo | NO 73.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 66.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 119.95th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 121.528th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.2 | Margin | −1.721st of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 115.99th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 117.527th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.2 | Pace | 102.84th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 4th of 3020–13 | Road vs home | 16–1621st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−32 Elo- Kobe Bufkin sprained left big toe−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 0–1 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.