Cleveland Cavaliers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints27
- Darius GarlandAssists11
- Jarrett AllenRebounds10
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints33
- Brandon IngramAssists5
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–95
- Q47.0shot clock turnover116–95
- Q427.1Isaac Okoro defensive rebound116–95
- Q431.0Jordan Hawkins misses driving layup116–95
- Q439.0Craig Porter makes 20-foot pullup jump shot116–95
- Q458.1Naji Marshall makes two point shot114–95
- Q41:00Craig Porter bad pass (Naji Marshall steals)114–93
- Q41:20Naji Marshall makes 25-foot three pointer (Jeremiah Robinson-Earl assists)114–93
- Q41:24Jeremiah Robinson-Earl offensive rebound114–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:05Darius Garland makes 27-foot three pointerCLE 28 – 22 NO · CLE 51% → 58% +7CLE 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q29:10Sam Merrill makes 23-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)CLE 35 – 26 NO · CLE 60% → 67% +7CLE 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q28:48Darius Garland makes 22-foot three point shot (Caris LeVert assists)CLE 38 – 26 NO · CLE 67% → 73% +7CLE 67% → 73%+7 pts
- Q22:27Darius Garland makes 26-foot three pointerCLE 53 – 41 NO · CLE 70% → 76% +7CLE 70% → 76%+7 pts
- Q311:40Darius Garland makes 29-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 56 – 45 NO · CLE 68% → 76% +7CLE 68% → 76%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -3
- NO 63%
- Fair odds
- NO -129
- CLE +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 107.5 – 109.5 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1592 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | +53 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +91 Elo | NO 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 56.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.7 | Points scored | 116.413th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.7 | Points allowed | 111.18th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +5.34th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 116.18th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 110.87th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.0 | Pace | 100.116th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3019–11 | Road vs home | 18–1212th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–1 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.