Phoenix Suns at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints37
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Kevin DurantRebounds8
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints30
- Caris LeVertAssists11
- Jarrett AllenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–111
- Q41.1Grayson Allen defensive rebound117–111
- Q44.0Darius Garland misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot117–111
- Q410.1Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2117–111
- Q410.1Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2116–111
- Q410.1Isaac Okoro personal take foul115–111
- Q410.1Royce O'Neale defensive rebound115–111
- Q412.1Darius Garland misses driving layup115–111
- Q421.1Grayson Allen makes free throw 2 of 2115–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:43Sam Merrill makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaac Okoro assists)PHX 102 – 100 CLE · CLE 27% → 39% +12CLE 27% → 39%+12 pts
- Q47:02Devin Booker makes driving layupPHX 106 – 104 CLE · PHX 51% → 62% +11PHX 51% → 62%+11 pts
- Q45:52Kevin Durant makes two point shot (Royce O'Neale assists)PHX 108 – 105 CLE · PHX 57% → 68% +11PHX 57% → 68%+11 pts
- Q44:04Craig Porter makes 1-foot driving dunk (Georges Niang assists)PHX 110 – 107 CLE · CLE 18% → 29% +11CLE 18% → 29%+11 pts
- Q43:43Kevin Durant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 113 – 107 CLE · PHX 72% → 87% +15PHX 72% → 87%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -1.5
- PHX 57%
- Fair odds
- PHX -116
- CLE +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 111.8 – 110.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +45 | −29 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | PHX crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +48 Elo | PHX 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 53.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 113.818th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 109.54th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.7 | Margin | +4.27th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 113.816th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.6 | Pace | 99.125th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 11th of 3016–13 | Road vs home | 21–1210th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.