Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints29
- Dennis SchroderAssists8
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds10
Cavaliers- Georges NiangPoints20
- Caris LeVertAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–101
- Q415.0shot clock turnover120–101
- Q437.0Trendon Watford defensive rebound120–101
- Q439.1Craig Porter misses 20-foot step back jumpshot120–101
- Q453.2Jalen Wilson turnover120–101
- Q453.2Jalen Wilson offensive foul120–101
- Q41:00Keita Bates-Diop defensive rebound120–101
- Q41:04Lonnie Walker IV blocks Emoni Bates 's 5-foot driving floating jump shot120–101
- Q41:25Jalen Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2120–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:24Cam Thomas makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)BKN 67 – 62 CLE · BKN 39% → 48% +9BKN 39% → 48%+9 pts
- Q37:17Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)BKN 70 – 67 CLE · BKN 33% → 42% +9BKN 33% → 42%+9 pts
- Q36:46Dorian Finney-Smith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)BKN 73 – 67 CLE · BKN 43% → 53% +10BKN 43% → 53%+10 pts
- Q36:05Darius Garland makes 30-foot three pointerBKN 73 – 70 CLE · CLE 47% → 57% +10CLE 47% → 57%+10 pts
- Q34:29Mikal Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)BKN 82 – 72 CLE · BKN 59% → 69% +10BKN 59% → 69%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -8.5
- CLE 79%
- Fair odds
- CLE -307
- BKN +307 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 102.7 – 111.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1585 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −26 | −17 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +231 Elo | CLE 79.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 75.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 75.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 114.018th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 109.43rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.3 | Margin | +4.65th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 113.816th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 109.22nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.2 | Pace | 99.223rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 23rd of 309–20 | Road vs home | 21–119th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 0–3 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.