Brooklyn Nets at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints31
- Dennis SchroderAssists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds10
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints24
- Vasilije MicicAssists10
- Nick RichardsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–110
- Q420.1Brandon Miller defensive rebound99–110
- Q422.0Dennis Schroder misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot99–110
- Q431.1Davis Bertans makes free throw 2 of 299–110
- Q431.1Davis Bertans makes free throw 1 of 299–109
- Q431.1Mikal Bridges personal take foul99–108
- Q437.0Cam Thomas makes driving layup99–108
- Q449.1Miles Bridges makes free throw 1 of 197–108
- Q449.1Cam Thomas shooting foul97–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:00Dennis Schroder makes 26-foot three point jumper (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)BKN 72 – 74 CHA · BKN 37% → 47% +10BKN 37% → 47%+10 pts
- Q32:15Davis Bertans makes 25-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)BKN 76 – 86 CHA · CHA 72% → 81% +9CHA 72% → 81%+9 pts
- Q48:02Mikal Bridges makes 26-foot three pointerBKN 87 – 94 CHA · BKN 11% → 20% +9BKN 11% → 20%+9 pts
- Q47:25Trendon Watford makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Wilson assists)BKN 90 – 96 CHA · BKN 13% → 23% +10BKN 13% → 23%+10 pts
- Q45:30Aleksej Pokusevski makes 23-foot three point jumper (Vasilije Micic assists)BKN 90 – 99 CHA · CHA 81% → 91% +10CHA 81% → 91%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -3.5
- BKN 65%
- Fair odds
- BKN -130
- CHA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 106.0 – 104.0 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1349 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −28 | −24 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +105 Elo | BKN 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 56.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.0 | Points scored | 107.229th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 117.621st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.1 | Margin | −10.430th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 107.628th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 118.029th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.3 | Pace | 99.323rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 23rd of 309–19 | Road vs home | 8–2326th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 1–1 CHA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.