Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints32
- Grant WilliamsAssists5
- Nick RichardsRebounds13
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints28
- Kyle KuzmaAssists9
- Deni AvdijaRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–112
- Q417.1Jordan Poole defensive rebound100–112
- Q420.1Miles Bridges misses 28-foot step back jumpshot100–112
- Q429.1Corey Kispert makes free throw 2 of 2100–112
- Q429.1Anthony Gill enters the game for Richaun Holmes100–111
- Q429.1Corey Kispert makes free throw 1 of 2100–111
- Q429.1Brandon Miller personal foul100–110
- Q432.0Davis Bertans makes 28-foot three point jumper (Grant Williams assists)100–110
- Q437.1Kyle Kuzma makes two point shot (Jordan Poole assists)97–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:40Deni Avdija makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)CHA 80 – 81 WSH · WSH 39% → 54% +15WSH 39% → 54%+15 pts
- Q46:10Miles Bridges makes driving layupCHA 84 – 85 WSH · CHA 34% → 45% +11CHA 34% → 45%+11 pts
- Q45:41Deni Avdija makes driving layupCHA 84 – 87 WSH · WSH 55% → 67% +12WSH 55% → 67%+12 pts
- Q45:27Brandon Miller makes 15-foot pullup jump shotCHA 86 – 87 WSH · CHA 33% → 45% +12CHA 33% → 45%+12 pts
- Q45:12Kyle Kuzma makes driving layupCHA 86 – 89 WSH · WSH 55% → 67% +12WSH 55% → 67%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hornets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -0.5
- CHA 53%
- Fair odds
- CHA -111
- WSH +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 112.9 – 112.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1362 | 1325 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −30 | −51 | CHA: Missing Tre Mann −11 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +20 Elo | CHA 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 52.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30107.3 | Points scored | 114.515th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 124.630th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−10.4 | Margin | −10.029th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.7 | Offense rating | 109.026th of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.1 | Defense rating | 118.530th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.3 | Pace | 104.91st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 26th of 307–24 | Road vs home | 3–2630th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−30 Elo- Tre Mann left groin strain−11 Elo
Wizards
−51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 2–1 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.