Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints35
- Bradley BealAssists6
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds12
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints28
- Jamal MurrayAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds16
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game117–107
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime117–107
- OT15.0shot clock turnover117–107
- OT37.0Kevin Durant defensive rebound117–107
- OT40.1Jamal Murray misses 24-foot step back jumpshot117–107
- OT49.0Kevin Durant makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)117–107
- OT1:09Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)114–107
- OT1:25Kevin Durant makes 19-foot pullup jump shot114–104
- OT1:47Drew Eubanks defensive rebound112–104
- OT1:51Michael Porter Jr. misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot112–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:30Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 24-foot three point shot (Nikola Jokic assists)PHX 99 – 100 DEN · DEN 30% → 64% +34DEN 30% → 64%+34 pts
- Q445.1Jamal Murray makes 14-foot two point shotPHX 99 – 102 DEN · DEN 68% → 90% +22DEN 68% → 90%+22 pts
- Q426.1Kevin Durant makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 102 – 102 DEN · PHX 5% → 48% +44PHX 5% → 48%+44 pts
- OT3:44Kevin Durant makes 27-foot three pointer (Grayson Allen assists)PHX 107 – 102 DEN · PHX 60% → 79% +19PHX 60% → 79%+19 pts
- OT2:48Bradley Beal makes 25-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)PHX 110 – 104 DEN · PHX 71% → 88% +18PHX 71% → 88%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -4.5
- DEN 67%
- Fair odds
- DEN -202
- PHX +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 108.6 – 113.9 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −28 | +38 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +120 Elo | DEN 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 66.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 114.516th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 110.37th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.7 | Margin | +4.38th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 116.36th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 112.011th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.8 | Pace | 98.427th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 13th of 3015–13 | Road vs home | 24–52nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 0–1 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.