Toronto Raptors at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Gary Trent Jr.Points30
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists18
- Immanuel QuickleyRebounds9
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints35
- Bradley BealAssists8
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–120
- Q40.1Gary Trent Jr. makes layup (Immanuel Quickley assists)113–120
- Q40.1shot clock turnover111–120
- Q425.2Gary Trent Jr. makes driving layup (Immanuel Quickley assists)111–120
- Q440.1Immanuel Quickley defensive rebound109–120
- Q443.1Bradley Beal misses 26-foot step back jumpshot109–120
- Q41:05Immanuel Quickley bad pass (Royce O'Neale steals)109–120
- Q41:14Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2109–120
- Q41:14Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2109–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:00Kevin Durant makes 14-foot two point shotTOR 80 – 85 PHX · PHX 72% → 78% +6PHX 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q49:06Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 91 – 96 PHX · TOR 11% → 20% +9TOR 11% → 20%+9 pts
- Q47:59RJ Barrett makes driving layupTOR 93 – 96 PHX · TOR 19% → 27% +8TOR 19% → 27%+8 pts
- Q47:34Bol Bol makes 13-foot jumper (Saben Lee assists)TOR 93 – 98 PHX · PHX 73% → 81% +8PHX 73% → 81%+8 pts
- Q47:09Bradley Beal makes 25-foot three point jumper (Saben Lee assists)TOR 93 – 101 PHX · PHX 81% → 90% +9PHX 81% → 90%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -7.5
- PHX 77%
- Fair odds
- PHX -247
- TOR +247 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 113.2 – 120.1 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −71 | −23 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +212 Elo | PHX 77.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 70.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 71.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30114.1 | Points scored | 117.112th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.0 | Points allowed | 114.316th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−3.8 | Margin | +2.811th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 115.512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 112.712th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.0 | Pace | 100.715th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3010–20 | Road vs home | 20–1313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–0 PHX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.