Boston Celtics at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints29
- Derrick WhiteAssists9
- Al HorfordRebounds12
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints45
- Kevin DurantAssists6
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–107
- Q411.1Saben Lee makes free throw 2 of 2117–107
- Q411.1Suns offensive team rebound117–106
- Q411.1Saben Lee misses free throw 1 of 2117–106
- Q411.1Jaden Springer shooting foul117–106
- Q412.1Saben Lee offensive rebound117–106
- Q414.1David Roddy misses 23-foot three point jumper117–106
- Q422.0Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 1117–106
- Q422.0Jaden Springer enters the game for Al Horford116–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:45Jrue Holiday makes 26-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 34 – 29 PHX · BOS 65% → 71% +7BOS 65% → 71%+7 pts
- Q33:56Kevin Durant makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotBOS 77 – 74 PHX · PHX 24% → 33% +9PHX 24% → 33%+9 pts
- Q31:58Jrue Holiday makes 24-foot three pointer (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 80 – 74 PHX · BOS 67% → 77% +10BOS 67% → 77%+10 pts
- Q334.0Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three pointerBOS 87 – 78 PHX · BOS 78% → 86% +8BOS 78% → 86%+8 pts
- Q41:54Al Horford makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 110 – 102 PHX · BOS 91% → 98% +7BOS 91% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5
- BOS 69%
- Fair odds
- BOS -162
- PHX +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 116.9 – 113.3 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1688 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | −20 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +137 Elo | BOS 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 61.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.8 | Points scored | 117.112th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 114.316th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+10.9 | Margin | +2.911th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.2 | Offense rating | 115.612th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 112.712th of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.6 | Pace | 100.615th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3019–11 | Road vs home | 21–1312th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.