Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints41
- Jayson TatumAssists8
- Jaylen BrownRebounds14
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints32
- Nikola JokicAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–115
- Q40.0Peyton Watson defensive rebound109–115
- Q40.0Kristaps Porzingis misses tip shot109–115
- Q42.1Kristaps Porzingis offensive rebound109–115
- Q42.1Jaylen Brown misses 25-foot three point jumper109–115
- Q45.0Celtics offensive team rebound109–115
- Q47.1Jaylen Brown misses 25-foot three point shot109–115
- Q49.1Celtics Full timeout109–115
- Q49.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes free throw 2 of 2109–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:28Kristaps Porzingis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 71 – 74 DEN · BOS 35% → 45% +10BOS 35% → 45%+10 pts
- Q41:34Jrue Holiday makes 26-foot step back jumpshotBOS 106 – 109 DEN · BOS 5% → 21% +16BOS 5% → 21%+16 pts
- Q41:21Nikola Jokic makes 2-foot two point shotBOS 106 – 111 DEN · DEN 81% → 94% +12DEN 81% → 94%+12 pts
- Q41:08Jrue Holiday makes 22-foot step back jumpshot (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 109 – 111 DEN · BOS 5% → 26% +21BOS 5% → 26%+21 pts
- Q419.1Aaron Gordon makes alley oop dunk shot (Nikola Jokic assists)BOS 109 – 113 DEN · DEN 90% → >99% +10DEN 90% → >99%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5
- BOS 69%
- Fair odds
- BOS -144
- DEN +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 112.3 – 109.5 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1700 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +62 | +36 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +140 Elo | BOS 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 59.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.0 | Points scored | 114.416th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.8 | Points allowed | 110.47th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.2 | Margin | +4.07th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.4 | Offense rating | 116.17th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 112.011th of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.6 | Pace | 98.427th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3019–10 | Road vs home | 24–62nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 0–1 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.