Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints33
- Dejounte MurrayAssists9
- Clint CapelaRebounds15
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints25
- Collin SextonAssists6
- John CollinsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–124
- Q41.2Hawks offensive team rebound122–124
- Q41.2Vit Krejci misses 26-foot three point jumper122–124
- Q48.2Hawks Full timeout122–124
- Q48.2Walker Kessler enters the game for Johnny Juzang122–124
- Q48.2Taylor Hendricks enters the game for Brice Sensabaugh122–124
- Q48.2(00:08.9) [Hawks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)122–124
- Q48.2shot clock turnover122–124
- Q48.2Jazz offensive team rebound122–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q30.1Dejounte Murray makes 32-foot three pointerATL 96 – 98 UTAH · ATL 27% → 38% +11ATL 27% → 38%+11 pts
- Q411:00Jalen Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Clint Capela assists)ATL 99 – 102 UTAH · ATL 23% → 34% +11ATL 23% → 34%+11 pts
- Q48:15Jalen Johnson makes 29-foot three point jumper (Trent Forrest assists)ATL 106 – 108 UTAH · ATL 24% → 37% +13ATL 24% → 37%+13 pts
- Q47:24Johnny Juzang makes 22-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)ATL 106 – 113 UTAH · UTAH 73% → 84% +11UTAH 73% → 84%+11 pts
- Q41:18Dejounte Murray makes 28-foot three pointerATL 122 – 124 UTAH · ATL 5% → 25% +20ATL 5% → 25%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -1
- UTAH 53%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -135
- ATL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 120.9 – 123.2 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1406 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −48 | −27 | ATL: Missing Bogdan Bogdanovic −17, Onyeka Okongwu −11 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +21 Elo | UTAH 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.4 | Points scored | 117.69th of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.2 | Points allowed | 120.727th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.9 | Margin | −3.223rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 114.415th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 117.529th of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.6 | Pace | 102.09th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 20th of 3012–19 | Road vs home | 19–1314th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−48 Elo- Bogdan Bogdanovic injury/illness−17 Elo
- Onyeka Okongwu toe injury−11 Elo
Jazz
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–0 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.