Boston Celtics at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints38
- Jrue HolidayAssists8
- Luke KornetRebounds9
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints26
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists6
- Walker KesslerRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–107
- Q48.1shot clock turnover123–107
- Q432.1Oshae Brissett defensive rebound123–107
- Q435.0Kris Dunn misses 8-foot two point shot123–107
- Q443.1Svi Mykhailiuk enters the game for Jayson Tatum123–107
- Q443.1Payton Pritchard personal take foul123–107
- Q446.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 2 of 2123–107
- Q446.1JD Davison enters the game for Sam Hauser122–107
- Q446.1Jaden Springer enters the game for Derrick White122–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:07Jordan Clarkson makes 25-foot step back jumpshotBOS 54 – 50 UTAH · UTAH 25% → 31% +7UTAH 25% → 31%+7 pts
- Q31:31Jayson Tatum makes driving layupBOS 92 – 86 UTAH · BOS 71% → 77% +6BOS 71% → 77%+6 pts
- Q31:11Micah Potter makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brice Sensabaugh assists)BOS 93 – 89 UTAH · UTAH 20% → 29% +9UTAH 20% → 29%+9 pts
- Q336.0Jordan Clarkson makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotBOS 93 – 91 UTAH · UTAH 29% → 36% +7UTAH 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q331.1Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three pointerBOS 96 – 91 UTAH · BOS 64% → 74% +11BOS 64% → 74%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -7.5
- BOS 77%
- Fair odds
- BOS -157
- UTAH +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 121.1 – 117.7 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1698 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −8 | −17 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +208 Elo | BOS 76.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 61.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.8 | Points scored | 117.79th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.7 | Points allowed | 120.726th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.1 | Margin | −3.023rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.4 | Offense rating | 114.415th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 117.326th of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.5 | Pace | 102.18th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 1st of 3021–11 | Road vs home | 19–1212th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.