Boston Celtics at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints27
- Jayson TatumAssists8
- Payton PritchardRebounds8
Trail Blazers- Deandre AytonPoints22
- Scoot HendersonAssists8
- Deandre AytonRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–99
- Q417.0Moses Brown makes 3-foot two point shot (Rayan Rupert assists)121–99
- Q432.1Kris Murray defensive rebound121–97
- Q435.0Neemias Queta misses free throw 2 of 2121–97
- Q435.0Neemias Queta makes free throw 1 of 2121–97
- Q435.0Moses Brown shooting foul120–97
- Q435.0Neemias Queta offensive rebound120–97
- Q436.0Neemias Queta misses 7-foot hook shot120–97
- Q442.1Dalano Banton lost ball turnover (Jaden Springer steals)120–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:21Anfernee Simons makes 27-foot three pointer (Kris Murray assists)BOS 2 – 3 POR · POR 21% → 26% +5POR 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q111:06Al Horford makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 5 – 3 POR · BOS 74% → 79% +5BOS 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q19:46Derrick White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 8 – 7 POR · BOS 72% → 77% +5BOS 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q18:44Al Horford makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 11 – 7 POR · BOS 77% → 81% +5BOS 77% → 81%+5 pts
- Q23:37Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three pointerBOS 56 – 50 POR · POR 13% → 17% +5POR 13% → 17%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -11.5
- BOS 86%
- Fair odds
- BOS -311
- POR +311 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 117.0 – 108.4 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1694 | 1392 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | −27 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +317 Elo | BOS 86.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 74.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 75.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.7 | Points scored | 108.128th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.8 | Points allowed | 116.017th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+10.9 | Margin | −7.927th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.2 | Offense rating | 107.229th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 115.020th of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.6 | Pace | 99.521st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 1st of 3020–11 | Road vs home | 10–2225th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.