Toronto Raptors at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints29
- Kelly OlynykAssists8
- Jalen McDanielsRebounds10
Trail Blazers- Deandre AytonPoints30
- Anfernee SimonsAssists7
- Deandre AytonRebounds19
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game118–128
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime118–128
- OT12.1Immanuel Quickley makes free throw 3 of 3118–128
- OT12.1Immanuel Quickley makes free throw 2 of 3117–128
- OT12.1Raptors offensive team rebound116–128
- OT12.1Immanuel Quickley misses free throw 1 of 3116–128
- OT12.1Matisse Thybulle shooting foul116–128
- OT19.0Deandre Ayton makes alley oop dunk shot (Toumani Camara assists)116–128
- OT30.0Immanuel Quickley makes two point shot (Kelly Olynyk assists)116–126
- OT33.0Anfernee Simons lost ball turnover (Gary Trent Jr. steals)114–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:43Immanuel Quickley makes 22-foot three point jumper (Gradey Dick assists)TOR 103 – 107 POR · TOR 9% → 22% +13TOR 9% → 22%+13 pts
- Q41:12Immanuel Quickley makes 1-foot two point shotTOR 109 – 111 POR · TOR 9% → 25% +16TOR 9% → 25%+16 pts
- Q445.1Matisse Thybulle makes two point shot (Deandre Ayton assists)TOR 109 – 113 POR · POR 80% → 95% +15POR 80% → 95%+15 pts
- Q40.1Chris Boucher makes tip shotTOR 113 – 113 POR · TOR 0% → 50% +50TOR 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT3:06Dalano Banton makes two point shot (Matisse Thybulle assists)TOR 113 – 117 POR · POR 66% → 80% +13POR 66% → 80%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Trail Blazers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- POR 50%
- Fair odds
- POR -107
- TOR +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 113.8 – 114.3 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1381 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −79 | −40 | TOR: Missing RJ Barrett −14 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · POR: Missing Jerami Grant −10 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +3 Elo | TOR 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 51.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30114.1 | Points scored | 107.828th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.0 | Points allowed | 116.017th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−3.9 | Margin | −8.227th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 107.029th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 115.120th of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.9 | Pace | 99.521st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3010–21 | Road vs home | 9–2225th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−79 Elo- RJ Barrett illness−14 Elo
Trail Blazers
−40 Elo- Jerami Grant right hamstring strain−10 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–1 POR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.