Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints27
- Fred VanVleetAssists10
- Alperen SengunRebounds9
Trail Blazers- Dalano BantonPoints30
- Kris MurrayAssists7
- Kris MurrayRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–107
- Q49.2Rayan Rupert makes two point shot (Kris Murray assists)123–107
- Q422.1Aaron Holiday makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot123–105
- Q435.0Cam Whitmore offensive rebound121–105
- Q438.1Aaron Holiday misses 26-foot three point jumper121–105
- Q441.1Nate Williams offensive rebound121–105
- Q443.2Cam Whitmore misses 25-foot three point shot121–105
- Q446.1Nate Williams defensive rebound121–105
- Q450.0Amen Thompson blocks Justin Minaya 's 3-foot driving layup121–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:48Jabari Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 55 – 58 POR · HOU 37% → 45% +8HOU 37% → 45%+8 pts
- Q38:19Duop Reath makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dalano Banton assists)HOU 65 – 73 POR · POR 63% → 71% +9POR 63% → 71%+9 pts
- Q37:24Fred VanVleet makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)HOU 70 – 75 POR · HOU 28% → 37% +9HOU 28% → 37%+9 pts
- Q32:26Jalen Green makes 26-foot step back jumpshotHOU 85 – 84 POR · HOU 45% → 56% +11HOU 45% → 56%+11 pts
- Q32:11Jalen Green makes 23-foot three point shot (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 88 – 84 POR · HOU 56% → 67% +11HOU 56% → 67%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2.5
- HOU 60%
- Fair odds
- HOU -121
- POR +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 111.5 – 110.0 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1392 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −20 | −34 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +71 Elo | HOU 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30112.9 | Points scored | 107.828th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 115.917th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −8.027th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 107.029th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 115.020th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.0 | Pace | 99.521st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 27th of 306–24 | Road vs home | 9–2125th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 0–1 POR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.