Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints29
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists6
- Walker KesslerRebounds11
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints37
- Nikola JokicAssists8
- Nikola JokicRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–142
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–142
- Q40.0(00:00) [Jazz] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)121–142
- Q44.1shot clock turnover121–142
- Q429.1John Collins makes free throw 2 of 2121–142
- Q429.1John Collins makes free throw 1 of 2120–142
- Q429.1Hunter Tyson personal foul119–142
- Q437.1Jay Huff makes 3-foot two point shot (Julian Strawther assists)119–142
- Q449.1Hunter Tyson defensive rebound119–140
- Q451.1John Collins misses free throw 2 of 2119–140
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:35Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point shot (Aaron Gordon assists)UTAH 0 – 5 DEN · DEN 76% → 81% +5DEN 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q19:53Jamal Murray makes 24-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)UTAH 2 – 8 DEN · DEN 78% → 82% +4DEN 78% → 82%+4 pts
- Q18:46Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotUTAH 4 – 13 DEN · DEN 82% → 86% +4DEN 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q17:13Jamal Murray makes 23-foot three point shot (Aaron Gordon assists)UTAH 8 – 16 DEN · DEN 80% → 85% +4DEN 80% → 85%+4 pts
- Q14:37Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)UTAH 14 – 26 DEN · DEN 86% → 89% +3DEN 86% → 89%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -8
- DEN 79%
- Fair odds
- DEN -269
- UTAH +269 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 111.5 – 119.1 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | +38 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +231 Elo | DEN 79.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 72.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.7 | Points scored | 114.416th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.4 | Points allowed | 110.47th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−2.7 | Margin | +4.17th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 116.17th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 111.911th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.1 | Pace | 98.427th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–23 | Road vs home | 25–62nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
UTAH 1–1 DEN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.