Atlanta Hawks at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints40
- Bogdan BogdanovicAssists8
- Clint CapelaRebounds14
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints36
- Anfernee SimonsAssists8
- Deandre AytonRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–106
- Q42.0Toumani Camara defensive rebound102–106
- Q42.0Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 23-foot three point shot102–106
- Q43.1Bogdan Bogdanovic enters the game for Bruno Fernando102–106
- Q43.1Hawks Full timeout102–106
- Q43.1Anfernee Simons makes free throw 2 of 2102–106
- Q43.1Anfernee Simons makes free throw 1 of 2102–105
- Q43.1Vit Krejci personal take foul102–104
- Q411.0Toumani Camara offensive rebound102–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:11Matisse Thybulle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Deandre Ayton assists)ATL 86 – 91 POR · POR 59% → 73% +14POR 59% → 73%+14 pts
- Q42:40Anfernee Simons makes 29-foot three pointer (Kris Murray assists)ATL 93 – 99 POR · POR 74% → 91% +16POR 74% → 91%+16 pts
- Q41:22Dejounte Murray makes two point shotATL 99 – 101 POR · ATL 11% → 27% +16ATL 11% → 27%+16 pts
- Q418.0Dejounte Murray makes 27-foot three pointerATL 102 – 103 POR · ATL <1% → 26% +25ATL <1% → 26%+25 pts
- Q415.1Deandre Ayton makes free throw 1 of 2ATL 102 – 104 POR · POR 76% → 92% +16POR 76% → 92%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1.5
- ATL 56%
- Fair odds
- ATL -110
- POR +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 116.1 – 115.4 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1388 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −36 | −40 | ATL: Missing Onyeka Okongwu −10, Jalen Johnson −8 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +42 Elo | ATL 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.6 | Points scored | 108.028th of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.5 | Points allowed | 116.117th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −8.127th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 107.229th of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.6 | Defense rating | 115.222nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.7 | Pace | 99.421st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 20th of 3012–18 | Road vs home | 10–2325th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−36 Elo- Onyeka Okongwu left toe−10 Elo
- Jalen Johnson right ankle sprain−8 Elo
Trail Blazers
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.