Portland Trail Blazers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints30
- Anfernee SimonsAssists9
- Deandre AytonRebounds15
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints28
- Ayo DosunmuAssists10
- Andre DrummondRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–110
- Q42.1Trail Blazers offensive team rebound107–110
- Q42.1Alex Caruso blocks Anfernee Simons 's 25-foot three point pullup jump shot107–110
- Q46.1DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 2107–110
- Q46.1Torrey Craig enters the game for Onuralp Bitim107–109
- Q46.1DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 2107–109
- Q46.1Dalano Banton personal take foul107–108
- Q47.1Toumani Camara enters the game for Duop Reath107–108
- Q47.1Onuralp Bitim enters the game for Torrey Craig107–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:20Ayo Dosunmu makes two point shotPOR 100 – 102 CHI · CHI 56% → 69% +13CHI 56% → 69%+13 pts
- Q43:31Anfernee Simons makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotPOR 103 – 102 CHI · POR 30% → 52% +22POR 30% → 52%+22 pts
- Q42:28DeMar DeRozan makes driving layupPOR 105 – 104 CHI · CHI 28% → 45% +17CHI 28% → 45%+17 pts
- Q449.0Alex Caruso makes free throw 2 of 2POR 105 – 106 CHI · CHI 53% → 68% +15CHI 53% → 68%+15 pts
- Q49.1Nikola Vucevic makes 5-foot two point shotPOR 105 – 108 CHI · CHI 83% → >99% +17CHI 83% → >99%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -5.5
- CHI 71%
- Fair odds
- CHI -229
- POR +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 107.8 – 114.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1386 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −46 | −15 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +156 Elo | CHI 71.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 69.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 69.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30107.7 | Points scored | 112.122nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 113.614th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.1 | Margin | −1.621st of 30 |
| 29th of 30107.1 | Offense rating | 112.619th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 114.218th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.3 | Pace | 97.829th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–24 | Road vs home | 17–1720th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 0–1 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.