New York Knicks at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints45
- Jalen BrunsonAssists4
- Josh HartRebounds15
Trail Blazers- Deandre AytonPoints31
- Scoot HendersonAssists6
- Deandre AytonRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–93
- Q41.0Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound105–93
- Q43.1Ashton Hagans misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot105–93
- Q411.1shot clock turnover105–93
- Q434.1OG Anunoby defensive rebound105–93
- Q437.1Toumani Camara misses 23-foot step back jumpshot105–93
- Q441.1Deandre Ayton defensive rebound105–93
- Q443.1Jalen Brunson misses 11-foot two point shot105–93
- Q41:06Deandre Ayton makes dunk105–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:59Kris Murray makes 23-foot three point shot (Ashton Hagans assists)NY 16 – 20 POR · POR 34% → 41% +6POR 34% → 41%+6 pts
- Q13:17Matisse Thybulle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ashton Hagans assists)NY 18 – 23 POR · POR 36% → 43% +7POR 36% → 43%+7 pts
- Q211:43Alec Burks makes 24-foot three pointerNY 29 – 25 POR · NY 69% → 75% +6NY 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q210:08Justin Minaya makes 23-foot three point jumper (Matisse Thybulle assists)NY 29 – 30 POR · POR 29% → 36% +7POR 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q28:37OG Anunoby makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bojan Bogdanovic assists)NY 32 – 31 POR · NY 62% → 69% +7NY 62% → 69%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -7.5
- NY 76%
- Fair odds
- NY -228
- POR +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 107.8 – 101.5 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1395 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −14 | −44 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +204 Elo | NY 76.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 69.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30112.3 | Points scored | 107.928th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.3 | Points allowed | 115.917th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.9 | Margin | −7.927th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 107.229th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 115.121st of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.6 | Pace | 99.420th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 13th of 3016–14 | Road vs home | 11–2325th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 1–0 POR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.