Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Kelly Oubre Jr.Points18
- Cameron PayneAssists5
- Tobias HarrisRebounds12
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints19
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Josh HartRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game79–73
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter79–73
- Q45.1Tobias Harris defensive rebound79–73
- Q46.1Donte DiVincenzo misses two point shot79–73
- Q47.2Donte DiVincenzo offensive rebound79–73
- Q49.1Jalen Brunson misses driving layup79–73
- Q414.1Paul Reed enters the game for Cameron Payne79–73
- Q414.1Bojan Bogdanovic enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein79–73
- Q414.1Alec Burks enters the game for Precious Achiuwa79–73
- Q414.1Knicks Full timeout79–73
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:06Buddy Hield makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)PHI 57 – 52 NY · PHI 45% → 56% +11PHI 45% → 56%+11 pts
- Q410:34Bojan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)PHI 65 – 61 NY · NY 30% → 42% +12NY 30% → 42%+12 pts
- Q47:42Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cameron Payne assists)PHI 70 – 61 NY · PHI 71% → 83% +12PHI 71% → 83%+12 pts
- Q42:19Josh Hart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)PHI 75 – 71 NY · NY 6% → 20% +14NY 6% → 20%+14 pts
- Q41:57Kyle Lowry makes 24-foot three pointerPHI 78 – 71 NY · PHI 82% → 96% +13PHI 82% → 96%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -7.5
- NY 78%
- Fair odds
- NY -239
- PHI +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 104.8 – 111.4 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −100 | −31 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Missing OG Anunoby −7 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +215 Elo | NY 77.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 69.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 70.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 113.021st of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 109.32nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.9 | Margin | +3.79th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 115.413th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 111.68th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.2 | Pace | 97.929th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 10th of 3016–13 | Road vs home | 21–1211th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−100 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−31 Elo- OG Anunoby right elbow surgery−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–2 NY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.