Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Kelly Oubre Jr.Points19
- Kyle LowryAssists6
- Paul ReedRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game79–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter79–106
- Q420.1Ricky Council IV makes two point shot (Buddy Hield assists)79–106
- Q423.0Buddy Hield defensive rebound77–106
- Q425.1
Ricky Council IV blocks Shake Milton 's 29-foot step back jumpshot77–106 - Q446.1Paul Reed makes free throw 2 of 277–106
- Q446.1Paul Reed makes free throw 1 of 276–106
- Q446.1Miles McBride shooting foul75–106
- Q447.1Paul Reed offensive rebound75–106
- Q448.1Buddy Hield misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot75–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:41Tyrese Maxey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyle Lowry assists)PHI 5 – 8 NY · PHI 26% → 31% +5PHI 26% → 31%+5 pts
- Q18:26Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)PHI 5 – 11 NY · NY 69% → 74% +5NY 69% → 74%+5 pts
- Q17:13OG Anunoby makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)PHI 7 – 14 NY · NY 71% → 76% +5NY 71% → 76%+5 pts
- Q25:29Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot three point shot (Josh Hart assists)PHI 31 – 41 NY · NY 77% → 83% +6NY 77% → 83%+6 pts
- Q37:29Donte DiVincenzo makes 24-foot three point shot (Josh Hart assists)PHI 51 – 64 NY · NY 85% → 90% +5NY 85% → 90%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -5.5
- NY 70%
- Fair odds
- NY -174
- PHI +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 103.4 – 107.6 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −53 | −23 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +147 Elo | NY 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 63.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 112.423rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 108.82nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.0 | Margin | +3.69th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 114.914th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 111.38th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.0 | Pace | 97.830th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 8th of 3017–13 | Road vs home | 21–1310th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–2 NY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.