Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Dalano BantonPoints28
- Anfernee SimonsAssists8
- Deandre AytonRebounds8
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints30
- CJ McCollumAssists8
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–126
- Q42.1Jabari Walker out of bounds bad pass turnover107–126
- Q410.1Jabari Walker defensive rebound107–126
- Q413.2CJ McCollum misses 26-foot step back jumpshot107–126
- Q429.1Naji Marshall defensive rebound107–126
- Q431.1Rayan Rupert misses 6-foot two point shot107–126
- Q447.2Naji Marshall makes 10-foot pullup jump shot (Jeremiah Robinson-Earl assists)107–126
- Q41:00Rayan Rupert makes free throw 2 of 2107–124
- Q41:00Rayan Rupert makes free throw 1 of 2106–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:06Trey Murphy III makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (CJ McCollum assists)POR 11 – 15 NO · NO 74% → 82% +8NO 74% → 82%+8 pts
- Q122.1Zion Williamson makes driving layupPOR 31 – 34 NO · NO 72% → 79% +7NO 72% → 79%+7 pts
- Q22:05Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three point shot (Dalano Banton assists)POR 66 – 64 NO · POR 27% → 34% +7POR 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q36:02Naji Marshall makes 24-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)POR 83 – 87 NO · NO 70% → 79% +8NO 70% → 79%+8 pts
- Q35:26Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Kris Murray assists)POR 86 – 87 NO · POR 21% → 30% +8POR 21% → 30%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -10
- NO 84%
- Fair odds
- NO -335
- POR +335 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 104.5 – 113.7 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1391 | 1574 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −30 | +50 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | POR crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NO +283 Elo | NO 83.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 76.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 77.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30107.7 | Points scored | 116.013th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 111.18th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.0 | Margin | +4.94th of 30 |
| 29th of 30107.1 | Offense rating | 115.98th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 110.98th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.3 | Pace | 99.917th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–23 | Road vs home | 19–1315th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 0–1 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.