Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Corey KispertPoints16
- Jordan PooleAssists8
- Bilal CoulibalyRebounds8
Bulls- Ayo DosunmuPoints34
- Ayo DosunmuAssists9
- Nikola VucevicRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–127
- Q419.2Onuralp Bitim makes 14-foot driving floating jump shot (Dalen Terry assists)98–127
- Q424.1Terry Taylor defensive rebound98–125
- Q428.0Johnny Davis misses 23-foot three point jumper98–125
- Q439.1Adama Sanogo makes tip shot98–125
- Q439.1Adama Sanogo offensive rebound98–123
- Q442.2Eugene Omoruyi blocks Andrew Funk 's 5-foot two point shot98–123
- Q457.0Dalen Terry defensive rebound98–123
- Q459.0Jules Bernard misses driving layup98–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:19Corey Kispert makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)WSH 3 – 2 CHI · WSH 25% → 30% +5WSH 25% → 30%+5 pts
- Q18:46Nikola Vucevic makes 7-foot two point shotWSH 6 – 7 CHI · CHI 69% → 73% +4CHI 69% → 73%+4 pts
- Q16:02Nikola Vucevic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)WSH 10 – 15 CHI · CHI 74% → 79% +5CHI 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q14:02Justin Champagnie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)WSH 16 – 19 CHI · WSH 19% → 25% +5WSH 19% → 25%+5 pts
- Q13:17Alex Caruso makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)WSH 16 – 24 CHI · CHI 79% → 84% +5CHI 79% → 84%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -6.5
- CHI 74%
- Fair odds
- CHI -251
- WSH +251 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 113.2 – 120.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1333 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −38 | −26 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +181 Elo | CHI 73.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 71.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 71.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 111.824th of 30 |
| 30th of 30123.9 | Points allowed | 113.914th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.6 | Margin | −2.021st of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 112.419th of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.1 | Defense rating | 114.518th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.7 | Pace | 97.829th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–29 | Road vs home | 16–1721st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.