Washington Wizards at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints32
- Tyus JonesAssists16
- Deni AvdijaRebounds10
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints23
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists4
- Bam AdebayoRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–108
- Q40.1Heat offensive team rebound110–108
- Q41.1Jimmy Butler misses 24-foot three point jumper110–108
- Q43.1Jimmy Butler offensive rebound110–108
- Q45.0Duncan Robinson misses 26-foot three point jumper110–108
- Q412.0Bilal Coulibaly enters the game for Jordan Poole110–108
- Q412.0Duncan Robinson enters the game for Jaime Jaquez Jr.110–108
- Q412.0Kyle Kuzma turnover110–108
- Q412.0Kyle Kuzma offensive foul110–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:18Corey Kispert makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)WSH 97 – 92 MIA · WSH 50% → 66% +17WSH 50% → 66%+17 pts
- Q45:23Duncan Robinson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)WSH 99 – 97 MIA · MIA 31% → 49% +18MIA 31% → 49%+18 pts
- Q44:30Tyus Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Corey Kispert assists)WSH 102 – 97 MIA · WSH 54% → 73% +19WSH 54% → 73%+19 pts
- Q43:44Duncan Robinson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)WSH 104 – 100 MIA · MIA 14% → 30% +16MIA 14% → 30%+16 pts
- Q43:25Deni Avdija makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)WSH 107 – 100 MIA · WSH 71% → 87% +16WSH 71% → 87%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -10.5
- MIA 85%
- Fair odds
- MIA -383
- WSH +383 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 107.0 – 117.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1338 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −52 | +15 | WSH: Missing Richaun Holmes −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +298 Elo | MIA 84.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 78.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 79.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 110.527th of 30 |
| 30th of 30124.2 | Points allowed | 109.96th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.7 | Margin | +0.616th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 112.320th of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.3 | Defense rating | 111.710th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.8 | Pace | 98.228th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 29th of 306–27 | Road vs home | 17–1317th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−52 Elo- Richaun Holmes sprained left big toe−2 Elo
Heat
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–2 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.