Washington Wizards at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints24
- Tyus JonesAssists9
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds7
Grizzlies- Trey Jemison IIIPoints24
- Luke KennardAssists8
- Jordan GoodwinRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–109
- Q417.1Bilal Coulibaly bad pass (Luke Kennard steals)97–109
- Q426.1Jake LaRavia makes free throw 2 of 297–109
- Q426.1Jake LaRavia makes free throw 1 of 297–108
- Q426.1Corey Kispert personal foul97–107
- Q432.1Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 197–107
- Q432.1Santi Aldama shooting foul96–107
- Q432.1Deni Avdija makes layup (Kyle Kuzma assists)96–107
- Q437.1Corey Kispert defensive rebound94–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:16John Konchar makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)WSH 10 – 16 MEM · MEM 66% → 72% +6MEM 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q12:27Jordan Poole makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jared Butler assists)WSH 19 – 20 MEM · WSH 32% → 39% +6WSH 32% → 39%+6 pts
- Q13.0Wenyen Gabriel makes 23-foot three point jumper (GG Jackson assists)WSH 21 – 29 MEM · MEM 70% → 76% +6MEM 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q45:24Kyle Kuzma makes 2-foot two point shot (Jordan Poole assists)WSH 88 – 94 MEM · WSH 9% → 15% +6WSH 9% → 15%+6 pts
- Q44:16Trey Jemison makes 1-foot two point shot (Luke Kennard assists)WSH 88 – 96 MEM · MEM 87% → 93% +6MEM 87% → 93%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Grizzlies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -1.5
- MEM 57%
- Fair odds
- MEM -152
- WSH +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 109.6 – 112.8 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1349 | 1373 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −39 | −52 | WSH: Missing Richaun Holmes −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MEM: Missing Lamar Stevens −8 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +48 Elo | MEM 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 60.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 105.830th of 30 |
| 30th of 30123.9 | Points allowed | 112.59th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.5 | Margin | −6.725th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.1 | Offense rating | 105.230th of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.1 | Defense rating | 111.910th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.7 | Pace | 100.017th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–27 | Road vs home | 7–2528th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−39 Elo- Richaun Holmes sprained left big toe−1 Elo
Grizzlies
−52 Elo- Lamar Stevens left adductor soreness−8 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–0 MEM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.