Washington Wizards at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints25
- Tyus JonesAssists8
- Deni AvdijaRebounds9
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints37
- Fred VanVleetAssists9
- Amen ThompsonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–135
- Q46.0Rockets defensive team rebound119–135
- Q46.0Jules Bernard misses free throw 1 of 1119–135
- Q46.0Aaron Holiday shooting foul119–135
- Q46.0Jules Bernard makes driving layup119–135
- Q412.2shot clock turnover117–135
- Q436.2Jules Bernard makes driving layup117–135
- Q445.1Nate Williams makes free throw 2 of 2115–135
- Q445.1Nate Williams makes free throw 1 of 2115–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:26Tyus Jones makes 25-foot three pointer (Bilal Coulibaly assists)WSH 7 – 6 HOU · WSH 29% → 35% +6WSH 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q17:54Jalen Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)WSH 11 – 13 HOU · HOU 65% → 71% +6HOU 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q14:09Jordan Poole makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)WSH 24 – 25 HOU · WSH 26% → 31% +6WSH 26% → 31%+6 pts
- Q138.1Jordan Poole makes 28-foot three pointer (Corey Kispert assists)WSH 31 – 33 HOU · WSH 24% → 30% +6WSH 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q210:12Reggie Bullock Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jae'Sean Tate assists)WSH 33 – 38 HOU · HOU 70% → 76% +6HOU 70% → 76%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -7
- HOU 75%
- Fair odds
- HOU -211
- WSH +211 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 112.2 – 117.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1339 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −41 | −56 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +193 Elo | HOU 75.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 67.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 112.820th of 30 |
| 30th of 30123.7 | Points allowed | 112.510th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.5 | Margin | +0.318th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 111.024th of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.0 | Defense rating | 110.66th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.7 | Pace | 100.914th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–28 | Road vs home | 21–119th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.