Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Fred VanVleetPoints22
- Fred VanVleetAssists9
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds11
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints25
- Domantas SabonisAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–104
- Q46.1Fred VanVleet defensive rebound112–104
- Q49.1Kevin Huerter misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot112–104
- Q414.0Fred VanVleet bad pass (Malik Monk steals)112–104
- Q417.1Fred VanVleet defensive rebound112–104
- Q421.0De'Aaron Fox misses 27-foot three point jumper112–104
- Q427.1Fred VanVleet makes free throw 2 of 2112–104
- Q427.1Fred VanVleet makes free throw 1 of 2111–104
- Q427.1Kevin Huerter personal foul110–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q237.1Fred VanVleet makes 30-foot three pointerHOU 54 – 57 SAC · HOU 25% → 33% +7HOU 25% → 33%+7 pts
- Q310:14Dillon Brooks makes 24-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 59 – 63 SAC · HOU 22% → 30% +7HOU 22% → 30%+7 pts
- Q43:20Malik Monk makes tip shotHOU 101 – 96 SAC · SAC 10% → 18% +9SAC 10% → 18%+9 pts
- Q43:05Jabari Smith Jr. makes 7-foot pullup jump shot (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 103 – 96 SAC · HOU 83% → 91% +8HOU 83% → 91%+8 pts
- Q42:27Malik Monk makes dunk (Davion Mitchell assists)HOU 103 – 98 SAC · SAC 6% → 14% +8SAC 6% → 14%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -2.5
- SAC 61%
- Fair odds
- SAC -169
- HOU +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 114.9 – 118.9 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | +11 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +76 Elo | SAC 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 62.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 118.58th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 118.022nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.417th of 30 |
| 24th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 115.711th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 115.321st of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.0 | Pace | 101.412th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 26th of 307–24 | Road vs home | 17–1113th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 2–0 SAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.