San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints30
- Tre JonesAssists12
- Jeremy SochanRebounds8
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints33
- Domantas SabonisAssists9
- Domantas SabonisRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–131
- Q40.0Spurs offensive team rebound129–131
- Q40.0Jeremy Sochan misses 8-foot two point shot129–131
- Q40.2Jeremy Sochan offensive rebound129–131
- Q40.2Devin Vassell misses 28-foot three point jumper129–131
- Q47.1Trey Lyles enters the game for Domantas Sabonis129–131
- Q47.1Spurs Full timeout129–131
- Q47.1Domantas Sabonis makes 5-foot driving dunk129–131
- Q47.1Malaki Branham bad pass (Domantas Sabonis steals)129–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:34Devin Vassell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)SA 123 – 118 SAC · SA 59% → 78% +20SA 59% → 78%+20 pts
- Q42:31De'Aaron Fox makes 11-foot pullup jump shotSA 125 – 124 SAC · SAC 29% → 47% +17SAC 29% → 47%+17 pts
- Q41:15Keldon Johnson makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Malaki Branham assists)SA 127 – 124 SAC · SA 59% → 81% +22SA 59% → 81%+22 pts
- Q423.1Malik Monk makes 26-foot three point jumperSA 129 – 129 SAC · SAC 5% → 52% +48SAC 5% → 52%+48 pts
- Q47.1Domantas Sabonis makes 5-foot driving dunkSA 129 – 131 SAC · SAC 51% → 98% +47SAC 51% → 98%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -6.5
- SAC 74%
- Fair odds
- SAC -271
- SA +271 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 114.3 – 121.9 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1382 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −47 | +9 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +185 Elo | SAC 74.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 72.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 73.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.2 | Points scored | 118.28th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.2 | Points allowed | 117.822nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−8.0 | Margin | +0.417th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.3 | Offense rating | 115.612th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 115.221st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.2 | Pace | 101.312th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 29th of 306–28 | Road vs home | 16–1116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 0–2 SAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.