Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Fred VanVleetPoints21
- Fred VanVleetAssists7
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds9
Spurs- Tre JonesPoints24
- Victor WembanyamaAssists6
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–101
- Q43.1Malaki Branham enters the game for Tre Jones103–101
- Q43.1Amen Thompson defensive rebound103–101
- Q43.1Devin Vassell misses free throw 2 of 2103–101
- Q43.1Jalen Green enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate103–101
- Q43.1Jock Landale enters the game for Aaron Holiday103–101
- Q43.1Devin Vassell makes free throw 1 of 2103–101
- Q43.1Amen Thompson personal take foul103–100
- Q44.0Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Jock Landale103–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:45Victor Wembanyama makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Blake Wesley assists)HOU 79 – 79 SA · SA 38% → 51% +13SA 38% → 51%+13 pts
- Q49:48Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 82 – 81 SA · HOU 40% → 54% +14HOU 40% → 54%+14 pts
- Q47:49Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot three point shot (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 89 – 85 SA · HOU 54% → 69% +15HOU 54% → 69%+15 pts
- Q418.1Jeremy Sochan makes free throw 1 of 1HOU 99 – 98 SA · SA 10% → 26% +16SA 10% → 26%+16 pts
- Q47.1Jalen Green makes free throw 1 of 2HOU 100 – 98 SA · HOU 85% → 98% +13HOU 85% → 98%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Spurs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- SA 49%
- Fair odds
- SA -108
- HOU +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 113.0 – 113.6 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1398 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −59 | +26 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | HOU crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +4 Elo | HOU 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 51.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 112.521st of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 120.125th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −7.726th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 108.627th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 116.023rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.0 | Pace | 103.23rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–24 | Road vs home | 7–2228th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 2–1 SA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.