Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Jonathan KumingaPoints22
- Chris PaulAssists8
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds10
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints27
- Jeremy SochanAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–102
- Q414.1shot clock turnover112–102
- Q438.1Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 2112–102
- Q438.1Sandro Mamukelashvili enters the game for Tre Jones112–101
- Q438.1Malaki Branham enters the game for Devin Vassell112–101
- Q438.1Blake Wesley enters the game for Keldon Johnson112–101
- Q438.1Spurs offensive team rebound112–101
- Q438.1Victor Wembanyama misses free throw 1 of 2112–101
- Q438.1Chris Paul personal foul112–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:48Julian Champagnie makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jeremy Sochan assists)GS 51 – 55 SA · SA 48% → 56% +8SA 48% → 56%+8 pts
- Q23:41Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three pointer (Draymond Green assists)GS 56 – 57 SA · GS 44% → 52% +8GS 44% → 52%+8 pts
- Q311:00Victor Wembanyama makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jeremy Sochan assists)GS 58 – 63 SA · SA 52% → 61% +9SA 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q310:09Devin Vassell makes 22-foot three point shot (Jeremy Sochan assists)GS 58 – 68 SA · SA 67% → 75% +8SA 67% → 75%+8 pts
- Q38:51Jonathan Kuminga makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)GS 65 – 70 SA · GS 30% → 38% +9GS 30% → 38%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -2.5
- GS 60%
- Fair odds
- GS -127
- SA +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 118.6 – 116.8 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1406 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −16 | +23 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −24 | GS crossed 2 time zones and SA crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +74 Elo | GS 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 55.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 112.621st of 30 |
| 18th of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 120.325th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.6 | Margin | −7.626th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 108.727th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 116.124th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.8 | Pace | 103.23rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 12th of 3016–13 | Road vs home | 7–2127th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 1–1 SA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.