San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints22
- Tre JonesAssists11
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds11
Warriors- Klay ThompsonPoints27
- Chris PaulAssists9
- Andrew WigginsRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–113
- Q44.0Keldon Johnson defensive rebound126–113
- Q46.1Lester Quinones misses 30-foot three point jumper126–113
- Q413.1shot clock turnover126–113
- Q437.2Lester Quinones makes 3-foot driving dunk (Pat Spencer assists)126–113
- Q448.0Keldon Johnson makes two point shot126–111
- Q448.0Keldon Johnson offensive rebound124–111
- Q449.1Keldon Johnson misses driving floating jump shot124–111
- Q41:08Keldon Johnson defensive rebound124–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:02Julian Champagnie makes 27-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)SA 59 – 43 GS · SA 64% → 71% +7SA 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q310:05Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)SA 65 – 52 GS · GS 23% → 31% +8GS 23% → 31%+8 pts
- Q37:45Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)SA 68 – 59 GS · GS 31% → 40% +9GS 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q37:11Malaki Branham makes 26-foot three point shot (Tre Jones assists)SA 73 – 59 GS · SA 67% → 76% +8SA 67% → 76%+8 pts
- Q32:13Keldon Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Blake Wesley assists)SA 88 – 73 GS · SA 77% → 85% +8SA 77% → 85%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -9.5
- GS 83%
- Fair odds
- GS -328
- SA +328 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 113.1 – 122.1 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1380 | 1581 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −49 | −14 | SA: Missing Devin Vassell −18 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +272 Elo | GS 82.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 75.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 76.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.4 | Points scored | 118.77th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.4 | Points allowed | 116.918th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−8.0 | Margin | +1.812th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 115.414th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 113.615th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.3 | Pace | 101.810th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 29th of 306–29 | Road vs home | 17–1621st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−49 Elo- Devin Vassell left hip injury−18 Elo
Warriors
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 0–1 GS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.