LA Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints31
- James HardenAssists10
- Ivica ZubacRebounds8
Trail Blazers- Scoot HendersonPoints24
- Scoot HendersonAssists10
- Jabari WalkerRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–117
- Q40.1Brandon Boston Jr. defensive rebound125–117
- Q40.1Scoot Henderson misses 24-foot step back jumpshot125–117
- Q46.0Mason Plumlee makes free throw 2 of 2125–117
- Q46.0Mason Plumlee makes free throw 1 of 2124–117
- Q46.0Jabari Walker personal take foul123–117
- Q47.1Mason Plumlee defensive rebound123–117
- Q410.1Rayan Rupert misses free throw 2 of 2123–117
- Q410.1Rayan Rupert makes free throw 1 of 2123–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:30Toumani Camara makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kris Murray assists)LAC 4 – 5 POR · POR 28% → 33% +6POR 28% → 33%+6 pts
- Q18:35Paul George makes 22-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)LAC 10 – 7 POR · LAC 68% → 74% +6LAC 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q18:27Anfernee Simons makes 27-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)LAC 10 – 10 POR · POR 26% → 32% +6POR 26% → 32%+6 pts
- Q17:53Kawhi Leonard makes 26-foot three point shot (Terance Mann assists)LAC 15 – 10 POR · LAC 72% → 77% +5LAC 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q16:59Kawhi Leonard makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotLAC 18 – 10 POR · LAC 77% → 82% +5LAC 77% → 82%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -6.5
- LAC 74%
- Fair odds
- LAC -223
- POR +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 114.1 – 108.0 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1377 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −9 | −58 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +178 Elo | LAC 73.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 69.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 107.628th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 115.817th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.0 | Margin | −8.127th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 107.129th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 115.222nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.1 | Pace | 99.220th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 6th of 3021–14 | Road vs home | 11–2525th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 3–0 POR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.