Portland Trail Blazers at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints25
- Anfernee SimonsAssists6
- Deandre AytonRebounds12
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints30
- James HardenAssists10
- Ivica ZubacRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–105
- Q41.0Ivica Zubac personal take foul106–105
- Q41.0James Harden bad pass (Deandre Ayton steals)106–105
- Q43.2Clippers Full timeout106–105
- Q43.2Derrick Jones Jr. defensive rebound106–105
- Q44.1Deandre Ayton misses 23-foot three point jumper106–105
- Q429.1Trail Blazers defensive team rebound106–105
- Q429.1Deni Avdija blocks Norman Powell 's 2-foot two point shot106–105
- Q429.1Norman Powell defensive rebound106–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:35James Harden makes 26-foot three pointerPOR 99 – 102 LAC · LAC 57% → 77% +20LAC 57% → 77%+20 pts
- Q43:19Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three pointerPOR 102 – 102 LAC · POR 22% → 43% +21POR 22% → 43%+21 pts
- Q42:44Anfernee Simons makes driving layupPOR 104 – 103 LAC · POR 35% → 52% +17POR 35% → 52%+17 pts
- Q41:56Norman Powell makes 12-foot pullup jump shotPOR 104 – 105 LAC · LAC 45% → 65% +20LAC 45% → 65%+20 pts
- Q41:38Deandre Ayton makes 6-foot hook shotPOR 106 – 105 LAC · POR 34% → 56% +22POR 34% → 56%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -8.5
- ML POR +280 / LAC -350
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3.5
- LAC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.5 pts
- LAC: Elo 63.2%, market 74.7%
- Fair odds
- LAC -296
- POR +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 105.5 – 114.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1412 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −27 | −99 | POR: Missing Robert Williams III −7 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +94 Elo | LAC 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 66.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 74.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30107.5 | Points scored | 111.322nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.8 | Points allowed | 108.06th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.3 | Margin | +3.38th of 30 |
| 27th of 30104.2 | Offense rating | 106.623rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 103.43rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30103.1 | Pace | 100.521st of 30 |
| 25th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 0–125th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−27 Elo- Robert Williams III left hamstring−7 Elo
Clippers
−99 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 0–4 LAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.