LA Clippers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints37
- James HardenAssists16
- Ivica ZubacRebounds15
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints41
- Jamal MurrayAssists5
- Nikola JokicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–104
- Q41.0Nuggets offensive team rebound109–104
- Q41.0Jamal Murray misses 41-foot three point shot109–104
- Q44.1Norman Powell makes free throw 2 of 2109–104
- Q44.1Norman Powell makes free throw 1 of 2108–104
- Q44.1Christian Braun personal take foul107–104
- Q44.1Norman Powell defensive rebound107–104
- Q44.1Nikola Jokic misses 26-foot three point shot107–104
- Q414.1Nuggets Full timeout107–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:31Norman Powell makes 8-foot two point shotLAC 98 – 96 DEN · LAC 44% → 62% +18LAC 44% → 62%+18 pts
- Q41:53James Harden makes 14-foot step back jumpshotLAC 100 – 98 DEN · LAC 45% → 66% +21LAC 45% → 66%+21 pts
- Q41:35Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Michael Porter Jr. assists)LAC 100 – 101 DEN · DEN 32% → 66% +33DEN 32% → 66%+33 pts
- Q453.1Norman Powell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Amir Coffey assists)LAC 103 – 103 DEN · LAC 11% → 47% +36LAC 11% → 47%+36 pts
- Q430.1James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2LAC 104 – 103 DEN · LAC 47% → 67% +20LAC 47% → 67%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -7.5
- ML LAC +260 / DEN -320
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -8
- DEN 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- DEN: Elo 77.9%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -274
- LAC +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 105.5 – 113.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −120 | +15 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +219 Elo | DEN 77.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 76.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 76.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 114.914th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 109.66th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +5.34th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.7 | Offense rating | 116.65th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 111.210th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.0 | Pace | 98.327th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 33–82nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−120 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 2–2 DEN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.