LA Clippers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints21
- James HardenAssists5
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds9
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints22
- Luka DoncicAssists9
- Luka DoncicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–101
- Q40.1Mason Plumlee makes 1-foot two point shot (Bones Hyland assists)90–101
- Q47.1shot clock turnover88–101
- Q431.1Mason Plumlee makes free throw 2 of 288–101
- Q431.1Mason Plumlee makes free throw 1 of 287–101
- Q431.1Dwight Powell shooting foul86–101
- Q438.0Bones Hyland defensive rebound86–101
- Q440.1Jaden Hardy misses driving dunk86–101
- Q456.1Brandon Boston Jr. makes free throw 2 of 286–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:39Josh Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)LAC 26 – 23 DAL · DAL 45% → 52% +7DAL 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q29:36James Harden makes 25-foot three pointerLAC 29 – 25 DAL · LAC 43% → 51% +7LAC 43% → 51%+7 pts
- Q29:08James Harden makes 24-foot step back jumpshotLAC 32 – 25 DAL · LAC 51% → 58% +7LAC 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q28:52Luka Doncic makes 25-foot step back jumpshotLAC 32 – 28 DAL · DAL 42% → 49% +7DAL 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q27:36Luka Doncic makes 24-foot step back jumpshotLAC 32 – 34 DAL · DAL 56% → 64% +7DAL 56% → 64%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -3.5
- DAL 63%
- Fair odds
- DAL -156
- LAC +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 108.9 – 112.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | +40 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −24 | LAC crossed 2 time zones and DAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +96 Elo | DAL 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 60.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 117.97th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 115.620th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +2.214th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.7 | Offense rating | 115.68th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 113.518th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.0 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 3–2 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.