Houston Rockets at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Cam WhitmorePoints21
- Amen ThompsonAssists10
- Amen ThompsonRebounds11
Clippers- Terance MannPoints24
- Xavier MoonAssists6
- Mason PlumleeRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–105
- Q43.0Daniel Theis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kobe Brown assists)116–105
- Q422.1Boban Marjanovic makes 1-foot dunk (Jermaine Samuels Jr. assists)116–102
- Q426.0Nate Hinton defensive rebound114–102
- Q428.1Mason Plumlee misses 23-foot three point jumper114–102
- Q444.1Nate Williams makes 1-foot dunk (Cam Whitmore assists)114–102
- Q450.1Jermaine Samuels Jr. defensive rebound112–102
- Q450.1Xavier Moon misses 24-foot three point jumper112–102
- Q455.2Mason Plumlee defensive rebound112–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:20Aaron Holiday makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cam Whitmore assists)HOU 79 – 78 LAC · HOU 49% → 61% +12HOU 49% → 61%+12 pts
- Q49:19Brandon Boston Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Xavier Moon assists)HOU 89 – 88 LAC · LAC 27% → 39% +13LAC 27% → 39%+13 pts
- Q48:36Nate Williams makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nate Hinton assists)HOU 92 – 88 LAC · HOU 60% → 74% +13HOU 60% → 74%+13 pts
- Q43:09Brandon Boston Jr. makes 1-foot dunkHOU 105 – 102 LAC · LAC 14% → 24% +11LAC 14% → 24%+11 pts
- Q42:55Jabari Smith Jr. makes 28-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 108 – 102 LAC · HOU 76% → 91% +15HOU 76% → 91%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4
- HOU 66%
- Fair odds
- HOU -172
- LAC +172 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 116.5 – 112.4 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | −162 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +115 Elo | HOU 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 63.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 115.811th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 112.310th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +3.57th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 117.04th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 113.517th of 30 |
| 13th of 30100.8 | Pace | 98.820th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3013–27 | Road vs home | 25–1511th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−162 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 0–2 LAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.