Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Fred VanVleetPoints42
- Fred VanVleetAssists7
- Amen ThompsonRebounds10
Jazz- Luka SamanicPoints22
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists5
- Kenneth Lofton Jr.Rebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–124
- Q41.1Jeff Green defensive rebound121–124
- Q41.1Kenneth Lofton Jr. misses free throw 2 of 2121–124
- Q41.1Jazz offensive team rebound121–124
- Q41.1Kenneth Lofton Jr. misses free throw 1 of 2121–124
- Q41.1Jeff Green personal take foul121–124
- Q41.1Kenneth Lofton Jr. defensive rebound121–124
- Q44.1Fred VanVleet misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot121–124
- Q49.0Luka Samanic lost ball turnover (Dillon Brooks steals)121–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:36Johnny Juzang makes 24-foot three point jumper (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)HOU 101 – 106 UTAH · UTAH 48% → 62% +14UTAH 48% → 62%+14 pts
- Q44:21Talen Horton-Tucker makes 28-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)HOU 113 – 116 UTAH · UTAH 42% → 63% +20UTAH 42% → 63%+20 pts
- Q43:27Amen Thompson makes two point shotHOU 115 – 116 UTAH · HOU 34% → 49% +15HOU 34% → 49%+15 pts
- Q42:18Darius Bazley makes 1-foot layup (Kenneth Lofton Jr. assists)HOU 118 – 120 UTAH · UTAH 44% → 63% +19UTAH 44% → 63%+19 pts
- Q41:37Keyonte George makes driving layupHOU 118 – 122 UTAH · UTAH 67% → 85% +17UTAH 67% → 85%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -9.5
- HOU 82%
- Fair odds
- HOU -287
- UTAH +287 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 122.0 – 113.9 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1344 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | −124 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +263 Elo | HOU 81.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 73.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 74.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 115.612th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 120.729th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −5.023rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 113.118th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 118.029th of 30 |
| 13th of 30100.9 | Pace | 101.68th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3012–26 | Road vs home | 20–2021st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−124 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 3–0 UTAH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.