Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints34
- Jalen GreenAssists6
- Amen ThompsonRebounds14
Jazz- John CollinsPoints30
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists6
- John CollinsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–100
- Q41.0Taylor Hendricks makes 34-foot three point jumper (Brice Sensabaugh assists)101–100
- Q43.0Jazz Full timeout101–97
- Q43.0Jalen Green makes free throw 2 of 2101–97
- Q43.0Jalen Green makes free throw 1 of 2100–97
- Q43.0Brice Sensabaugh enters the game for Kris Dunn99–97
- Q43.0Kris Dunn personal take foul99–97
- Q46.1Johnny Juzang makes 5-foot hook shot (Taylor Hendricks assists)99–97
- Q49.1Taylor Hendricks offensive rebound99–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:41Fred VanVleet makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)HOU 81 – 82 UTAH · HOU 37% → 52% +15HOU 37% → 52%+15 pts
- Q45:16Jeff Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)HOU 88 – 83 UTAH · HOU 68% → 83% +15HOU 68% → 83%+15 pts
- Q42:50Taylor Hendricks makes 22-foot three point jumper (Johnny Juzang assists)HOU 93 – 91 UTAH · UTAH 12% → 29% +18UTAH 12% → 29%+18 pts
- Q42:09John Collins makes 4-foot driving dunk (Kris Dunn assists)HOU 95 – 93 UTAH · UTAH 14% → 28% +14UTAH 14% → 28%+14 pts
- Q41:21Johnny Juzang makes 5-foot two point shotHOU 96 – 95 UTAH · UTAH 16% → 35% +19UTAH 16% → 35%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -8
- HOU 79%
- Fair odds
- HOU -213
- UTAH +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 120.8 – 115.1 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1370 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | −63 | HOU: Usual rotation · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +229 Elo | HOU 78.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 68.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 116.511th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 120.829th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.9 | Margin | −4.223rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 113.717th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 117.829th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.0 | Pace | 101.88th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3011–24 | Road vs home | 20–1718th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 2–0 UTAH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.