Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Dalano BantonPoints28
- Dalano BantonAssists5
- Dalano BantonRebounds11
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints27
- Fred VanVleetAssists4
- Jock LandaleRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game92–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter92–110
- Q40.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound92–110
- Q40.0Dalano Banton misses 29-foot three point shot92–110
- Q42.1shot clock turnover92–110
- Q424.1Jock Landale defensive rebound92–110
- Q428.1Dalano Banton misses 23-foot three point shot92–110
- Q433.1Jae'Sean Tate bad pass (Toumani Camara steals)92–110
- Q455.0Dalano Banton makes 1-foot two point shot92–110
- Q41:01Fred VanVleet makes free throw 2 of 290–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:15Rayan Rupert makes 23-foot three pointer (Scoot Henderson assists)POR 58 – 53 HOU · POR 35% → 44% +9POR 35% → 44%+9 pts
- Q38:45Rayan Rupert makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)POR 61 – 55 HOU · POR 38% → 48% +9POR 38% → 48%+9 pts
- Q37:32Scoot Henderson makes 25-foot step back jumpshotPOR 64 – 55 HOU · POR 49% → 59% +10POR 49% → 59%+10 pts
- Q35:02Jalen Green makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jock Landale assists)POR 66 – 65 HOU · HOU 55% → 65% +10HOU 55% → 65%+10 pts
- Q33:34Jalen Green makes 26-foot step back jumpshotPOR 66 – 70 HOU · HOU 71% → 80% +9HOU 71% → 80%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -11
- HOU 86%
- Fair odds
- HOU -378
- POR +378 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 107.2 – 117.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1370 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −59 | −1 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | POR crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +308 Elo | HOU 85.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 78.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 79.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30107.8 | Points scored | 114.316th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 112.711th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.1 | Margin | +1.614th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.3 | Offense rating | 112.320th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 110.78th of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.2 | Pace | 101.013th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 26th of 308–25 | Road vs home | 25–117th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 1–1 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.