Houston Rockets at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints42
- Fred VanVleetAssists11
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds14
Wizards- Justin ChampagniePoints16
- Jared ButlerAssists9
- Richaun HolmesRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game137–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter137–114
- Q412.0Patrick Baldwin Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2137–114
- Q412.0Patrick Baldwin Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2137–113
- Q412.0Jae'Sean Tate shooting foul137–112
- Q426.1Boban Marjanovic makes free throw 1 of 1137–112
- Q426.1Anthony Gill shooting foul136–112
- Q426.1Boban Marjanovic makes 5-foot two point shot (Aaron Holiday assists)136–112
- Q438.0Justin Champagnie makes driving layup (Jules Bernard assists)134–112
- Q451.0Nate Williams makes free throw 1 of 1134–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:54Corey Kispert makes 26-foot three point shot (Patrick Baldwin Jr. assists)HOU 62 – 62 WSH · WSH 35% → 44% +9WSH 35% → 44%+9 pts
- Q39:28Patrick Baldwin Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Corey Kispert assists)HOU 62 – 65 WSH · WSH 44% → 53% +9WSH 44% → 53%+9 pts
- Q35:13Jalen Green makes 27-foot step back jumpshotHOU 79 – 76 WSH · HOU 55% → 65% +10HOU 55% → 65%+10 pts
- Q34:48Jalen Green makes 26-foot step back jumpshotHOU 82 – 76 WSH · HOU 65% → 74% +9HOU 65% → 74%+9 pts
- Q33:19Jeff Green makes 22-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)HOU 88 – 78 WSH · HOU 78% → 85% +7HOU 78% → 85%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -5
- HOU 70%
- Fair odds
- HOU -142
- WSH +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 117.1 – 114.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1320 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −39 | −17 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Missing Deni Avdija −2, Tyus Jones −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +146 Elo | HOU 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30113.2 | Points scored | 113.816th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 124.030th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −10.230th of 30 |
| 24th of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 108.726th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 118.430th of 30 |
| 13th of 30100.9 | Pace | 104.61st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–24 | Road vs home | 4–2730th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−17 Elo- Deni Avdija right knee contusion−2 Elo
- Tyus Jones back injury−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.